The Nature of Scientific Evidence
Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations
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The Nature of Scientific Evidence
Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations
An exploration of the statistical foundations of scientific inference, The Nature of Scientific Evidence asks what constitutes scientific evidence and whether scientific evidence can be quantified statistically. Mark Taper, Subhash Lele, and an esteemed group of contributors explore the relationships among hypotheses, models, data, and inference on which scientific progress rests in an attempt to develop a new quantitative framework for evidence. Informed by interdisciplinary discussions among scientists, philosophers, and statisticians, they propose a new "evidential" approach, which may be more in keeping with the scientific method. The Nature of Scientific Evidence persuasively argues that all scientists should care more about the fine points of statistical philosophy because therein lies the connection between theory and data.
Though the book uses ecology as an exemplary science, the interdisciplinary evaluation of the use of statistics in empirical research will be of interest to any reader engaged in the quantification and evaluation of data.
Though the book uses ecology as an exemplary science, the interdisciplinary evaluation of the use of statistics in empirical research will be of interest to any reader engaged in the quantification and evaluation of data.
Reviews
Table of Contents
Foreword by C. R. Rao
Preface
Part 1: Scientific Process
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
1: A Brief Tour of Statistical Concepts
Nicholas Lewin-Koh, Mark L. Taper, and Subhash R. Lele
2: Models of Scientific Inquiry and Statistical Practice: Implications for the Structure of Scientific Knowledge
Brian A. Maurer
2.1: Commentary
Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and John G. Bennett
2.2: Commentary
Mark L. Wilson
2.3: Rejoinder
Brian A. Maurer
3: Experiments, Observations, and Other Kinds of Evidence
Samuel M. Scheiner
3.1: Commentary
Marie-Josée Fortin
3.2: Commentary
Manuel C. Molles, Jr.
3.3: Rejoinder
Samuel M. Scheiner
Part 2: Logics of Evidence
Overview
V. P. Godambe
4: An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence
Deborah G. Mayo
4.1: Commentary
Earl D. McCoy
4.2: Commentary
George Casella
4.3: Rejoinder
Deborah G. Mayo
5: The Likelihood Paradigm for Statistical Evidence
Richard Royall
5.1: Commentary
D. R. Cox
5.2: Commentary
Martin Curd
5.3: Rejoinder
Richard Royall
6: Why Likelihood?
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober
6.1: Commentary
Michael Kruse
6.2: Commentary
Robert J. Boik
6.3: Rejoinder
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober
7: Evidence Functions and the Optimality of the Law of Likelihood
Subhash R. Lele
7.1: Commentary
Christopher C. Heyde
7.2: Commentary
Paul I. Nelson
7.3: Rejoinder
Subhash R. Lele
Part 3: Realities of Nature
Overview
Mark S. Boyce
8: Whole-Ecosystem Experiments: Replication and Arguing from Error
Jean A. Miller and Thomas M. Frost
8.1: Commentary
William A. Link
8.2: Commentary
Charles E. McCulloch
8.3: Rejoinder
Jean A. Miller
9: Dynamical Models as Paths to Evidence in Ecology
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
9.1: Commentary
Steven Hecht Orzack
9.2: Commentary
Philip M. Dixon
9.3: Rejoinder
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
10: Constraints on Negative Relationships: Mathematical Causes and Ecological Consequences
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly
10.1: Commentary
Robert D. Holt and Norman A. Slade
10.2: Commentary
Steve Cherry
10.3: Rejoinder
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly
Part 4: Science, Opinion, and Evidence
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
11: Statistics and the Scientific Method in Ecology
Brian Dennis
11.1: Commentary
Charles E. McCulloch
11.2: Commentary
Aaron M. Ellison
11.3: Rejoinder
Brian Dennis
12: Taking the Prior Seriously: Bayesian Analysis without Subjective Probability
Daniel Goodman
12.1: Commentary
Nozer D. Singpurwalla
12.2: Rejoinder
Daniel Goodman
13: Elicit Data, Not Prior: On Using Expert Opinion in Ecological Studies
Subhash R. Lele
13.1: Commentary
R. Cary Tuckfield
13.2: Commentary
Lance A. Waller
13.3: Rejoinder
Subhash R. Lele
Part 5: Models, Realities, and Evidence
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
14: Statistical Distances as Loss Functions in Assessing Model Adequacy
Bruce G. Lindsay
14.1: Commentary
D. R. Cox
14.2: Commentary
Stephen P. Ellner
14.3: Rejoinder
Bruce G. Lindsay
15: Model Identification from Many Candidates
Mark L. Taper
15.1: Commentary
Isabella Verdinelli and Larry Wasserman
15.2: Commentary
Hamparsum Bozdogan
15.3: Rejoinder
Mark L. Taper
Part 6: Conclusion
16: The Nature of Scientific Evidence: A Forward-Looking Synthesis
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
List of Contributors
Index
Preface
Part 1: Scientific Process
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
1: A Brief Tour of Statistical Concepts
Nicholas Lewin-Koh, Mark L. Taper, and Subhash R. Lele
2: Models of Scientific Inquiry and Statistical Practice: Implications for the Structure of Scientific Knowledge
Brian A. Maurer
2.1: Commentary
Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and John G. Bennett
2.2: Commentary
Mark L. Wilson
2.3: Rejoinder
Brian A. Maurer
3: Experiments, Observations, and Other Kinds of Evidence
Samuel M. Scheiner
3.1: Commentary
Marie-Josée Fortin
3.2: Commentary
Manuel C. Molles, Jr.
3.3: Rejoinder
Samuel M. Scheiner
Part 2: Logics of Evidence
Overview
V. P. Godambe
4: An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence
Deborah G. Mayo
4.1: Commentary
Earl D. McCoy
4.2: Commentary
George Casella
4.3: Rejoinder
Deborah G. Mayo
5: The Likelihood Paradigm for Statistical Evidence
Richard Royall
5.1: Commentary
D. R. Cox
5.2: Commentary
Martin Curd
5.3: Rejoinder
Richard Royall
6: Why Likelihood?
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober
6.1: Commentary
Michael Kruse
6.2: Commentary
Robert J. Boik
6.3: Rejoinder
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober
7: Evidence Functions and the Optimality of the Law of Likelihood
Subhash R. Lele
7.1: Commentary
Christopher C. Heyde
7.2: Commentary
Paul I. Nelson
7.3: Rejoinder
Subhash R. Lele
Part 3: Realities of Nature
Overview
Mark S. Boyce
8: Whole-Ecosystem Experiments: Replication and Arguing from Error
Jean A. Miller and Thomas M. Frost
8.1: Commentary
William A. Link
8.2: Commentary
Charles E. McCulloch
8.3: Rejoinder
Jean A. Miller
9: Dynamical Models as Paths to Evidence in Ecology
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
9.1: Commentary
Steven Hecht Orzack
9.2: Commentary
Philip M. Dixon
9.3: Rejoinder
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
10: Constraints on Negative Relationships: Mathematical Causes and Ecological Consequences
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly
10.1: Commentary
Robert D. Holt and Norman A. Slade
10.2: Commentary
Steve Cherry
10.3: Rejoinder
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly
Part 4: Science, Opinion, and Evidence
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
11: Statistics and the Scientific Method in Ecology
Brian Dennis
11.1: Commentary
Charles E. McCulloch
11.2: Commentary
Aaron M. Ellison
11.3: Rejoinder
Brian Dennis
12: Taking the Prior Seriously: Bayesian Analysis without Subjective Probability
Daniel Goodman
12.1: Commentary
Nozer D. Singpurwalla
12.2: Rejoinder
Daniel Goodman
13: Elicit Data, Not Prior: On Using Expert Opinion in Ecological Studies
Subhash R. Lele
13.1: Commentary
R. Cary Tuckfield
13.2: Commentary
Lance A. Waller
13.3: Rejoinder
Subhash R. Lele
Part 5: Models, Realities, and Evidence
Overview
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
14: Statistical Distances as Loss Functions in Assessing Model Adequacy
Bruce G. Lindsay
14.1: Commentary
D. R. Cox
14.2: Commentary
Stephen P. Ellner
14.3: Rejoinder
Bruce G. Lindsay
15: Model Identification from Many Candidates
Mark L. Taper
15.1: Commentary
Isabella Verdinelli and Larry Wasserman
15.2: Commentary
Hamparsum Bozdogan
15.3: Rejoinder
Mark L. Taper
Part 6: Conclusion
16: The Nature of Scientific Evidence: A Forward-Looking Synthesis
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
List of Contributors
Index
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