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The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia

Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region.

The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia
assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.

472 pages | 66 figures, 82 tables | 6 x 9 | © 2010

National Bureau of Economic Research East Asia Seminar on Economics

Economics and Business: Economics--International and Comparative

Table of Contents



Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose

I. Economic Growth

1. The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim

Andrew Mason, Ronald Lee, and Sang- Hyop Lee

Comment: Jocelyn E. Finlay

Comment: Jong- Wha Lee

2. Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Jocelyn E. Finlay

Comment: Roberto S. Mariano

Comment: Kwanho Shin

3. Demographic Transition, Human Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Cross- Country and Korean Microdata

Chin Hee Hahn and Chang- Gyun Park

Comment: Meng- chun Liu

Comment: Chulhee Lee

II. Japan

4. Japan’s Unprecedented Aging and Changing Intergenerational Transfers

Naohiro Ogawa, Andrew Mason, Amonthep Chawla, and Rikiya Matsukura

Comment: Worawan Chandoevwit

Comment: Alejandro N. Herrin

5. Pension Issues in Japan: How Can We Cope with the Declining Population?

Noriyuki Takayama

Comment: Worawan Chandoevwit

Comment: Hyungpyo Moon

6. The Effects of Demographic Change on Public Education in Japan

Fumio Ohtake and Shinpei Sano

Comment: Dae Il Kim

Comment: Chang- Gyun Park

III. Korea

7. Intergenerational Transfers and Old- Age Security in Korea

Hisam Kim

Comment: Jiyeun Chang

8. Labor Force Participation of Older Males in Korea: 1955 to 2005

Chulhee Lee

Comment: Kyungsoo Choi

Comment: Fumio Ohtake

IV. China and Hong Kong

9. Long- Term Effects of Early- Life Development: Evidence from the 1959 to 1961 China Famine

Douglas Almond, Lena Edlund, Hongbin Li, and Junsen Zhang

Comment: Ronald Lee

Comment: Naohiro Ogawa

10. Demographic Transition, Childless Families, and Economic Growth

Francis T. Lui

Comment: Hongbin Li

Comment: Roberto S. Mariano


Author Index

Subject Index

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