Sources for Chapter 7

The books, Web sites, journal articles, and interviews listed on this page are sources of information other than facts and concepts found in most beginning college-level meteorology textbooks, which the author used or that could help readers better understand the concepts described. For more on various topics, including further reading and links to related Web sites, follow the links labeled “Explorations.” Links labeled “Outtakes” are to text from early drafts of the book that were dropped before publication.

In the notes below “the author” refers to Jack Williams, author of The AMS Weather Book.

Page 150–151

• The snow in the two-page photo missed by a day disrupting the January 21, 2005, second inauguration of President George W. Bush. Inauguration planners and those forecasting the weather for them always worry about the possibility of disruptive snow or bitter cold, maybe both. How often has this happened? The Presidential Inaugural Weather page on the NWS Baltimore/Washington Forecast Office Web site has the answers in its history of each inauguration’s weather.

Page 152

• The account of forecasting the March 1993 “Storm of the Century” is based on the author’s interview with Louis Uccellini in his office in Camp Springs, Maryland. Also Louis W. Uccellini, et al., “Forecasting the 12–14 March 1993 Superstorm,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) 76 (February 1995): 183–199.

Page 153

• Explorations: The 1888 and 1993 Northeast Storms

Page 154

• David Laskin’s The Children’s Blizzard (New York: Harper Collins, 2004) tells the story of the January 1888 blizzard and U.S. weather forecasting of the time.
• The six hurricanes that hit the United States in 1893 and the Galveston, Texas, 1900 hurricane are described at length in Bob Sheets and Jack Williams, Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the Deadliest Storms on Earth (New York: Vintage, 2001), 52–58 and 61–70.

Page 155

• Los Angeles precipitation and temperature records from NWS’s Downtown Los Angeles Climate Web page.

Page 157

• State of forecasting in 1888:Laskin, The Children’s Blizzard, 85.

Page 158

• The Suzzane Van Cooten profile is based on the author’s interview with her at the American Meteorological Society’s office in Washington, D.C., and subsequent e-mail exchanges. For more information on her and her work see the interview with her and Kevin Kelleher, a Severe Storms Laboratory colleague, available on the NOAA Research Web site.

Pages 157–159

• A good, summary discussion of the scientific advances of meteorology from the late eighteenth century into the early twentieth century is found in Jeffrey Rosenfeld’s Eye of the Storm: Inside the World’s Deadliest Hurricanes, Tornadoes, and Blizzards (New York: Plenum, 1999), 59–114.
• Erik D. Craft’s “An Economic History of Weather Forecasting,” available on the Economic History of Weather Forecasting Web site, traces the history of forecasting from an economic point of view, including figures on the value of Great Lakes forecasts in the 1870s and 1880s.

Page 159

• Dynamical forecasts: The American Institute of Physics Center for the History of Physics’ Atmospheric General Circulation Modeling Web page tells the story from before 1955 until 1985. The Web site of Météo France (the French national weather service) has an English-language history of numerical weather forecasting, with an extensive bibliography, which covers the period from the early years of the twentieth century into the twenty-first century.

Page 162

• Model Output Statistics graphic and text: NWS’s Current MOS Forecast Products Web site.

Page 164

• August 21, 2017, eclipse forecast: NASA’s Eclipse Web site.

Page 163–164

• Chaos complications: Wikipedia, the free online encyclopedia, has an extensive article on chaos theory with numerous references and an extensive bibliography of print and online sources.
• Edward N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, reprint, illustrated, (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1995): “I stopped the computer …” 134; “If the flap of a butterfly’s wing …” 181; “a meteorologist recalls …” 15
• Explorations: Weather and the Arts (prompted by Lorenz’s mention of the novel storm)

Pages 164–165

• Ensemble forecasting: Klaus Weickmann, et al., “The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3-15 days) Weather Forecasts,” NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Web site.
• Joel K. Sivillo, Jon E. Ahlquist, and Zoltan Toth, “An Ensemble Forecasting Primer,” Weather and Forecasting 12 (December 1997): 809–818.

Page 165

• Spaghetti plots: Images and information from Zoltan Toth, NWS Environmental Modeling Center.
• Capital Weather Gang Blog
• Delivering forecasts: Based on a telephone interview with Lynn Maximuk.

Page 166

• Tom Skilling profile: Based on the author’s telephone interview and subsequent e-mail exchanges with Skilling, WGN’s Tom Skilling biography, and Skilling’s WGN Weather Center Blog.

Pages 167–168

• Section based on an interview with Bill Mahoney in his Boulder, Colorado, office and subsequent e-mail exchanges.
• Highway weather: Committee on Weather Research for Surface Transportation: The Roadway Environment, National Research Council, Where the Weather Meets the Road: A Research Agenda for Improving Road Weather Services (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2004).
• Technology needed for the scenario: See, for example, Chris Woodyard, “Cars Soon May ‘Talk’ to Roads, Each Other,” USA Today (November 11, 2005).

Page 169

• Aviation forecasts: NWS public forecasts like the example used are available from NWS local offices. Aviation weather forecasts are available from the NWS Aviation Weather Center Web site.
• Forecasts for airlines: Based on the author’s interviews with Warren Qualley in his Norman, Oklahoma, office and with Steve Abelman by telephone and subsequent e-mail follow ups.

Pages 169–171

• Icing research and smoother flights: Based on an interview with Marcia Politovich in her Boulder, Colorado, office and follow-up e-mail exchanges. See also the NCAR Aviation Applications Program Web page.

Pages 170–171

• Robert Sumwalt profile: Based on the author’s interview with him in his Washington, D.C., office and subsequent e-mail exchanges. Sumwalt’s NTSB biography is available online.

Page 171–173

• Looking far ahead: New York Times archives; William E. Riebsame, “News Media Coverage of Seasonal Forecasts: The Case of Winter 1982–83,” BAMS 64 (December 1983): 1351–1356.
• How winter of 1982–83 turned out: Roderick S. Quiroz, “The Climate of the ‘El Niño’ Winter of 1982–83: A Season of Extraordinary Climatic Anomalies,” Monthly Weather Review 111 (August 1983): 1685–1706.
• Frederic Golden, Russell Leavitt, and Jerry Hannitin’s “Tracking That Crazy Weather,” Time Magazine (April 11, 1983) reflects the emerging knowledge of El Niño in the spring of 1983, with conjectures that solar activity or large volcanic eruptions might trigger El Niños.

Page 174

• Failed forecasts: Based on the author’s interview with Louis Uccellini in his office in Camp Springs, Maryland; Elbert W. Friday, Jr., Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: A Workshop Summary (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2003).

Page 175

• Uncertainty in forecasts: Based on the author’s interviews with Louis Uccellini in his office in Camp Springs, Maryland, and with Ray Ban by telephone; Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2006).
• “Probabilistic Forecasts: Can You Make More Money Using Them?” BBC Weather Centre Web site.

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