Cloth $75.00 ISBN: 9780226774886 Published November 1993
E-book $7.00 to $45.00 About E-books ISBN: 9780226774749 Published April 2008

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Edited by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
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Edited by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

348 pages | 51 line drawings, 85 tables | 6 x 9 | © 1993
Cloth $75.00 ISBN: 9780226774886 Published November 1993
E-book $7.00 to $45.00 About E-books ISBN: 9780226774749 Published April 2008
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Contents
Acknowledgments
Introduction
James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson
1. Twenty-Two Years Of The NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects And Comparisons Of Forecasting Performance
Victor Zarnowitz And Phillip Braun
Comment: Allen Sinai
2. A Procedure For Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues And Recent Experience
James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson
Comment: Kenneth F. Wallis
3. Estimating Event Probabilities From Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation
Ray C. Fair
Comment: James D. Hamilton
4. A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model
Christopher A. Sims
Comment: Pierre Perron
5. Why Does The Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?
Benjamin M. Friedman And Kenneth N. Kuttner
Comment: Ben S. Bernanke
6. Further Evidence On Business Cycle Duration Dependence
Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, And Daniel E. Sichel
Comment: Bruce E. Hansen
7. Dynamic Index Models For Large Cross Sections
Danny Quah And Thomas J. Sargent
Comment: John Geweke
8. Modelling Non-Linearity Over The Business Cycle
Clive W.J. Granger, Timo Teräsvirta, And Heather Anderson
Comment: Andrew Harvey
Contributors
Author Index
Subject Index
For more information, or to order this book, please visit http://www.press.uchicago.edu
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