Cloth $99.00 ISBN: 9789089646507 Published December 2014 For sale only in the United States, its dependencies, the Philippines, and Canada

Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe

Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials

Edited by Michael Bommes, Heinz Fassmann, and Wiebke Sievers

Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe

Edited by Michael Bommes, Heinz Fassmann, and Wiebke Sievers

Distributed for Amsterdam University Press

290 pages | 27 halftones | 6 x 9
Cloth $99.00 ISBN: 9789089646507 Published December 2014 For sale only in the United States, its dependencies, the Philippines, and Canada
One of the most important challenges facing the European Union over the next few decades is demographic: as birthrates continue to decline and the population ages, immigration will be needed to sustain a sufficient working-age population. This volume takes that fact as a point of departure for analyzing patterns and prospects of immigration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe, taking into account existing migration links and current EU migration policies as well as demographic, economic, and political developments in the Middle East and North Africa.



Heinz Fassmann and Wiebke Sievers

Assessing migration potential from the MENA region

Migration histories and futures: Patterns and effects

Policies and conflicts: Two incalculable factors influencing


Migration potential: Figures and scenarios


Part I Country profiles

1 Euro-Mediterranean migration futures: The cases of Morocco,

Egypt and Turkey

Hein de Haas

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Beyond ‘push-pull’ frameworks: Migration systems and


1.3 Migration histories: Morocco, Egypt and Turkey

1.4 Recent migration trends

1.5 Development trends and migration futures

1.6 Conclusion


2 Migration and development in Egypt

Ayman Zohry

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Demography, the labour market and the political situation

2.3 Egyptian emigration

2.4 Migration and development

2.5 Conclusion


3 Turkish emigration and its implications for the sending and

receiving countries

Ahmet İçduygu

3.1 Introduction

3.2 A historical account of Turkish emigration and its


3.3 The economic, social and political consequences of

emigration for Turkey

3.4 The position of Turkish emigrants in Europe

3.5 Conclusion


Part II Arena of political regulation and conflicts

4 The European Union’s international-migration relations

towards Middle Eastern and North African countries

Andrew Geddes

4.1 Introduction

4.2 The EU as a political system

4.3 Europe’s international migration relations

4.4 Measures and instruments of EU-MENA migration relations

4.5 Issue linkages

4.6 Conclusion


5 Political conflicts and migration in the MENA states

Sigrid Faath and Hanspeter Mattes

5.1 Introduction

5.2 The socio-economic conditions in the MENA states and

migration potential

5.3 The conflict situation in the MENA countries

5.4 Assessment of the conflicts

5.5 Future conflict developments and migration potential

5.6 Final comments


6 The uncertainties involved in calculating migration

Franz Nuscheler

6.1 Preface: The methodological problem

6.2 Uncertainties in security policy

6.3 The ‘Islamist threat’: The main source of conflicts and

forced migration?

6.4 The security risks posed by climate change with

subsequent migration

6.5 Hotspots of regional conflict and migration

6.6 Uncertain and rather dismal perspectives

6.7 Conclusions


Part III Prognosis, scenarios and forecasts

7 Demographic developments in the MENA region

Ralf E. Ulrich

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Population dynamics of the MENA region

7.3 Future population dynamics: Potential and limitations

7.4 The relevance of the uneven demographic development

7.5 Conclusion


8 Estimating migration potential: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey

Heinz Fassmann

8.1 Preliminary remarks

8.2 Methods of estimating migration potential

8.3 Future population

8.4 Demography-driven calculation of the migration potential

8.5 Conclusion


9 Migration scenarios: Turkey, Egypt and Morocco

Michael Bommes, Simon Fellmer and Friederike Zigmann

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Methods

9.3 Migration scenarios: Turkey

9.4 Migration scenarios: Egypt

9.5 Migration scenarios: Morocco

9.6 Conclusion


List of contributors

Review Quotes
Michael Collyer | University of Sussex
“A very well edited publication which addresses an extremely topical subject from an important perspective. Many of the chapters are by internationally recognized experts in the field, presenting new analysis.”
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