The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025
Caspia Inc., National Giants or Trade and Transit?
Distributed for Eburon Publishers, Delft
With security of energy supply high on the international agenda and fears of resource shortages resurfacing, the countries surrounding the Caspian Sea are stepping onto the global stage, claiming for themselves new roles as providers of resources to the world. But with this newfound role come several uncertainties. How will the current recession affect these recently independent countries? How will global climate policy alter the value of their massive hydrocarbon reserves? And might the wealth generated from the sale of these resources lead to armed conflict within the region?
To better understand the potential impact of these forces, the authors of The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 imagine three different futures and predict the Caspian Sea region’s place within each. In the first scenario, the world is dominated by economic competition, and those countries around the Caspian Sea are leading gas and oil exporters. The second scenario describes a world dominated by geopolitical rivalry and resource nationalism in which the oil and gas sectors are state-controlled. And the last tells the story of a world where climate challenges have initiated a global shift from carbon-based to low-carbon energy sources.
A fascinating and timely exercise, The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025 will be required reading for all those invested in global politics and the future of energy security.
1 Introduction: The Caspian Sea region
Part 1. What Will Shape the Future of the Caspian Sea Region
2 Caspian natural resources—blessing and curse
3 Inside the Caspian countries: stable or unstable?
4 A new geopolitical reality is still taking shape
Part 2. Scenarios for the Caspian Sea Region 2025
5 Scenario 1: Caspia Inc.
6 Scenario 2: National Giants
7 Scenario 3: Trade and Transit
9 Comparisons and implications
About the Authors